Saturday’s Serie A action begins at the Stadio San Siro as Milan and Lazio go head-to-head in a crunch top-four six-pointer. The stakes could not be any higher for the home side in their final rehearsal ahead of the upcoming Champions League semi-finals.
In addition to surrendering the Scudetto to Napoli without a fight, Milan could be on the verge of experiencing one of the worst title-defending campaigns in Serie A history. After a last-gasp 1-1 draw at Lazio’s city rivals Roma last weekend, Stefano Pioli’s team had to come from behind again to hold relegation-bound Cremonese to an underwhelming home stalemate on Wednesday.
Junior Messias’ 93rd-minute free-kick rescued a 1-1 draw for Milan, allowing fourth-placed Inter to build a two-point buffer going into the last five rounds. Time has become a sensitive mission for the Rossoneri. And with the first leg of their Champions League semi-final tie against the Nerazzurri waiting in the wings, fatigue could plague the champions’ quest to secure a top-four finish for the third season running.
Unlike their hosts, Lazio excelled on Wednesday, as Felipe Anderson and Toma Basic scored on either side of halftime to hand Maurizio Sarri’s side a 2-0 home triumph over Sassuolo. Six points clear of fifth-placed Atalanta after arresting a two-match losing league streak, the Biancocelesti are confident about securing Champions League football for only the second time in 15 years.
Avenging a three-match losing run at the San Siro could prove a season-defining achievement for Lazio and cement their position in a keenly-contested top-four race. But considering they conceded an average of three goals per game in that sequence, the visitors will probably have to roll up their sleeves to return to Rome unscratched.
Match Preview
Milan
It’s been an uneventful season for Milan. Worryingly for Pioli, his men seem unable to pick themselves up as the season approaches the business end. They’ve recently established themselves as ‘stalemate specialists,’ with four of their last five Serie A matches ending as a draw (W1). If it’s any comfort, their only victory in that period came at home, courtesy of a 2-0 win over Lecce.
However, there’s a substantial gulf in quality between Marco Baroni’s team and Lazio. Milan witnessed that difference first-hand when the Biancocelesti thrashed them 4-0 in the reverse fixture at the Stadio Olimpico, which remains their heaviest defeat in Serie A this season. Unbeaten in their last eight competitive home outings (W5, D3), the Rossoneri will be looking to repay the favor on Saturday.
Player to Watch: Olivier Giroud
After being handed a much-needed rest against Cremonese, Giroud should regain his place in the starting lineup this weekend. The Frenchman enjoys playing against Lazio, having netted three goals in as many appearances against them in all competitions (W2, L1).
Lazio
After conceding four times in two Serie A games, Lazio kept their 19th clean sheet of the season against Sassuolo last time out. Despite boasting more shutouts than any other side in Italy’s top flight, Sarri’s men found themselves on the receiving end of a 3-1 scoreline on their most recent visit to the San Siro, as Inter thumped them a week ago.
Though only Napoli (43) have picked up more points on the road than Lazio this season (31), two of the Biancocelesti’s three away defeats in 2022/23 have come against fellow top-four rivals Inter and Juventus. It’s also worth noting that 60% of their goals conceded on hostile turf arrived in those two losses (6/10). As such, they cannot take anything for granted.
Player to Watch: Luis Alberto
With five goals and as many assists this term, Alberto has not enjoyed his best season at Lazio. But two of his goal contributions came in the reverse fixture, meaning he’s had his hand in seven goals against Milan, including three goals and four assists.
Team News
Apart from long-term absentee Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Milan will be without midfielder Tommaso Pobega, who has yet to recover from injury. But Pioli will welcome Fikayo Tomori back to the team after the Frenchman served a one-game ban against Cremonese.
On the other hand, Lazio could make this trip without Danilo Cataldi, who suffered a knock against Inter last Sunday. Matias Vecino’s availability is also in doubt after being spotted hobbling off the pitch against Sassuolo on Wednesday.
Milan vs Lazio Potential Lineups
Milan (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan; Davide Calabria, Fikayo Tomori, Pierre Kalulu, Theo Hernandez; Ismael Bennacer, Sandro Tonali; Alexis Saelemaekers, Brahim Diaz, Rafael Leao; Olivier Giroud.
Lazio (4-3-3): Ivan Provedel; Adaam Marusic, Alessio Romagnoli, Nicolo Casale, Elseid Hysaj; Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Marcos Antonio, Luis Alberto; Felipe Anderson, Ciro Immobile, Mattia Zaccagni.
Milan vs Lazio Prediction
Despite their impressive away record this season and an emphatic win in the reverse fixture, Lazio would undoubtedly settle for a point at the San Siro.
However, a draw isn’t enough for Milan. Scoring against Lazio is no small feat, given their excellent defensive record. Therefore, the hosts must rediscover their lethal instincts to register an all-important triumph.
We expect Pioli’s team to prevail, nonetheless.
Prediction: Milan Win
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