Friday is the day of reckoning between the Serie A heavyweights as Lazio and Milan go head-to-head at the Stadio Olimpico. For the home side, this is perhaps the last chance to stay alive in a top-four race while the visitors seek a way out of a mini-crisis.
After a disappointing 2-1 defeat at Fiorentina on Monday, Lazio’s chances of securing another Champions League qualification are in tatters. Eight points behind fourth-placed Bologna, Maurizio Sarri’s men can’t afford a slip-up in this high-profile match-up. But it’s not the only reason.
Lazio will return to Champions League action next week to protect a narrow 1-0 first-leg lead in their last-16 tie against Bayern Munich. Beating one of their oldest rivals would set them up perfectly for the upcoming trip to Germany. Yet, their recent form can’t inspire much confidence.
Sarri’s charges have alternated between winning and losing across their last five league outings (W2, L3). That’s part of the reason they commence this round outside the European spots. Visiting Milan might be heading into this matchday in a better position, but the situation is far from ideal.
Despite boasting a 68% ball possession and utterly outplaying Atalanta, Stefano Pioli’s team had to settle for a 1-1 draw on home turf last weekend. That was their second consecutive Serie A match without a victory following an embarrassing 4-2 defeat on their most recent trip to Monza.
With seven points separating them from fifth-placed Atalanta and only five from Bologna, this is not the time to drop more points. However, Milan are winless in their last three competitive games (D1, L2), casting doubt on their bid to avenge a 4-0 rout in this corresponding fixture in 2023/24.
Match Preview
Lazio
Lazio wasted an early lead in a 2-1 loss to Bologna in their last home league contest. That result was a rare blip in an otherwise impressive form at the Stadio Olimpico, which has seen Bianconcelesti collect 11 victories across their last 15 home matches across all competitions.
That could heighten the spirits around the Lazio camp as they look to win back-to-back home league encounters against Milan for the first time in over a decade. Keeping things clean at the back would significantly boost such hopes, knowing four of Lazio’s six home league triumphs this season have come ‘to nil.’
Au contraire, conceding first would dent their chances of returning to winning ways, as they’ve lost six out of seven Serie A games after falling behind this term.
Milan
Milan’s recent away form has stuttered, going from a five-game unbeaten run (W4, D1) to back-to-back defeats. Both those losses saw them capitulate at least three times, which has become synonymous with Pioli’s side. Leaking goals at an alarming rate on the road has begun to annoy the San Siro faithful.
To put this in perspective, Milan have conceded two or more goals in nine of their last 11 away matches in all competitions. That’s an alarming trend for a club of this stature, and it’s up to Pioli to stem the bleeding. But for neutrals, Rossoneri’s lackadaisical approach has been a source of entertainment.
Those 11 games featured an average of 4.3 goals per match, highlighting the potential for an action-packed contest. Not that Milan won’t agree, considering they netted 2+ goals on their last ten competitive travels.
Team News
There will be no excuse for Sarri this time if Lazio suffer another disappointing result. His entire squad is fit and ready, with only second-string midfielder Nicolo Rovella in doubt.
As for Milan, a long-standing injury crisis has subsided, leaving Tommaso Pobega as the only first-team absentee. Luka Jovic is unavailable after picking up a red against Monza, but Fikayo Tomori has returned to the fold after a lengthy spell in the treatment room.
Lazio vs Milan Potential Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3): Ivan Provedel, Manuel Lazzari, Nicolo Casale, Alessio Romagnoli, Elseid Hysaj; Matteo Guendouzi, Danilo Cataldi, Luis Alberto; Gustav Isaksen, Ciro Immobile, Felipe Anderson.
Milan (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan; Alessandro Florenzi, Malick Thiaw, Matteo Gabbia, Theo Hernandez; Tijjani Reijnders, Ismael Bennacer; Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leao; Olivier Giroud.
Lazio vs Milan Prediction
Lazio’s recent home performances have flattered to deceive, and although Milan are not playing their best football, we expect them to put three points on the board.
Prediction: Milan Win
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