Although this weekend’s fixtures do not offer any derbies or clash of the titans, the Serie A leaders are busy chasing much-needed points to stay at the top of the league standings. In Round 11 of Serie A, the second-placed Inter will travel to Sardinia to face Eusebio Di Francesco’s Cagliari.
The Nerazzurri come into this game after a massively disappointing midweek in the Champions League, as the three-time European Cup winners have been eliminated at the group stage for the third consecutive season. On the other hand, Cagliari are exempt from the European outings, leaving them with only the domestic competition to worry about.
The Cult of Calcio delves deep into the analysis of both teams’ recent form, as well as includes the potential lineups.
Cagliari – Inter
Serie A Round 11
Sunday, 13 December 2020
Kick-off at 12:30 (CET)
Sardegna Arena (Cagliari)
Recent Form – Cagliari
Cagliari’s first quarter of the season has been what can be considered as average or middling. The Islanders are currently placed 11th in the Serie A standings, having collected 12 points from the first ten matches. In Round 10, Di Francesco’s men played out a second consecutive draw, with Razvan Mari scoring an equalizing goal in the 48th-minute away at Hellas Verona.
It turned out to be a rather equal game, with both teams sharing an identical amount of ball-possession and creating a decent number of big scoring opportunities. More specifically, Cagliari had 13 shots (3 on target) and created 3 big chances, missing 2 of them, which resulted in an xG (expected goals) of 1.62. In contrast, Hellas Verona finished the game with an xG of 2.75, suggesting that Cagliari were lucky to come away with a point.
Their averageness in terms of league standings is also reflected by some key performance metrics. Going forward, the Islanders seem to have put up some decent numbers, scoring 17 goals so far in this Serie A campaign, which is the league’s 8th-best attack (avg. 1.70 goals per game). However, their total goals tally indicates an overperformance since Cagliari’s npxG (non-penalty expected goals) is only 12.02 (12th in the league). It implies that Di Francesco’s men create fewer high-quality scoring opportunities but are clinical enough to convert the chances of lower-scoring probability.
Team News and Predicted Lineup – Cagliari
Di Francesco is expected to field his strongest eleven, with no serious injury concerns ahead of Sunday’s clash. Charalampos Lykogiannis is set to be the only change in the starting lineup, replacing his counterpart at left-back position Alessandro Tripaldelli.
Expected Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Cragno; Farago, Walukiewicz, Carboni, Lykogiannis; Marin, Rog; Zappa, Joao Pedro, Sottil; Pavoletti
Unavailable: Ounas (COVID-19), Luvumbo (muscle injury), Ciocci
Recent Form – Inter
Despite the tragedy on Wednesday night, Inter’s most recent domestic form has been solid. The Nerazzurri have won the last 3 Serie A matches, which extended their unbeaten domestic run up to six. They scored 10 goals in those three games, climbing up to 2nd place in the league standings, which sees them currently sitting 5 points behind the fierce cross-city rivals Milan.
In their last game, Conte’s men proved their worth with a convincing 3-1 win against Bologna. The game panned out to be a fairly typical spectacle involving Inter, with the Nerazzurri having 10% less ball possession than the 10th-placed opponent from Bologna. Despite that, Inter showed their ruthlessness in front of goal once again, scoring 3 goals from an xG value of only 2.04.
Inter’s second place in the league standings does not come across as a surprise at all when we look at some of the Nerazzurri’s key performance metrics. Conte’s men are the highest-scoring team in the Serie A this season, having scored 26 goals in total, averaging 2.60 per game. Their nxpG (non-penalty expected goals) is 21.47, second-best in the league, which does not surprise at all knowing Inter’s clinical nature in front of goal. They have the best goals per shot on target ratio in the league (0.43) although only 34.8% of their shots hit the target (8th place). It implies that when Inter do hit the target, the ball ends up in the back of the opposing team’s net more often than not.
Team News and Predicted Lineup – Inter
Despite a disappointing result on Wednesday night against Shakhtar Donetsk, Inter came out unscathed with no major injury concerns. There is little doubt that Conte will go with his preferred and established 3-5-2 formation, as Romelu Lukaku and Alexis Sanchez will be looking to add to their combined tally of ten goals.
Expected Starting XI (3-5-2): Handanovic; Skriniar, de Vrij, Bastoni; Hakimi, Gagliardini, Brozovic, Barella, Perisic; Sanchez, Lukaku.
Unavailable: Nainggolan (muscle injury), Vecino (knee injury)
Cagliari vs Inter – Previous Meetings
On Sunday, both teams will meet for the 91st time, with Inter historically being much more successful of the two. So far, the Nerazzurri have won 44 of the previous encounters against Cagliari (48.9% win ratio), whilst the Isolani have only 16 victories to their name (17.7%).
The last meeting between the two sides ended in a 1-1 draw back in January.
Conclusion
Inter will be absolutely furious after yet another Champions League group stage exit. As a result, it can work in two ways: Conte’s team will want to prove a point by putting up the best performance of the season so far or Inter will crumble and find it extremely difficult to motivate themselves after a devastating Wednesday night. Either way, Cagliari will have to be at their best if they want to come away with at least a point from this game.