The Serie A season has just reached its quarter mark, and some of the teams have already exceeded their expectations, whilst others have fallen below the required standards. In Round 11, the Luigi Ferraris Stadium in Genoa will welcome the current title holders Juventus, as the home side will be looking to become the first team to beat the Old Lady this season.
Andrea Pirlo’s men come into this game after a fantastic Champions League win in midweek against Barcelona, which meant the Black-and-Whites have topped the Group G on goal difference. In contrast, Genoa did not have any midweek commitments; thus, their full focus for the whole week has been on the upcoming Sunday’s encounter.
The Cult of Calcio delivers you a full match preview, including the expected lineups of both teams.
Genoa – Juventus
Serie A Round 11
Sunday, 13 December 2020
Kick-off at 18:00 (CET)
Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa)
Recent Form – Genoa
Long story short, Genoa are arguably one of the worst teams in the Serie A this season. The Grifone have accumulated only 6 points from the first 10 matches, with only one win and already 6 defeats to their name. Genoa are currently placed 19th in the league standings, three points below the safe zone.
Last week, Rolando Maran’s men collected their first point after suffering four straight defeats, having drawn 1-1 away at Fiorentina. From the first look, Genoa were rather unfortunate not to come away with all three points, as Marko Pjaca’s 89th-minute goal was not enough to seal the win. Fiorentina’s Nikola Milenkovic managed to equalize in the eighth minute of stoppage time, preventing Genoa from clinching their second win of the season. However, the scoreline could have been and should have been different but not in favor of Genoa. The Grifone ended the game with an xG (expected goals) of 1.40, whereas Fiorentina’s xG was as high as 2.97. According to Sofascore, Viola blasted away 4 big chances, which perfectly explains the final scoreline based on xG metrics.
Genoa’s low position in the league standings is completely justifiable when we look at some of the key statistical metrics. Maran’s men have the league’s 2nd-worst attack, having scored so far only 9 goals in this Serie A campaign (avg. 0.90 goals per game). Genoa’s npxG (non-penalty expected goals) values are also clear evidence that a team is highly limited from the attacking point of view, with an npxG of only 9.60 (17th in the league). Additionally, the Grifone find themselves among the bottom teams for shot-creating and goal-creating actions. On average, Genoa create 14.60 shooting actions per game (18th result) and just over one goal-creating action during the 90 minutes (19th in Serie A). Limited attacking impetus has been Genoa’s main struggle so far this season.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Genoa
Maran is likely to be missing some of his key players who featured in last week’s one-all draw against Fiorentina. Mattia Perin and Federico Marchetti are the most obvious absences, as Genoa’s number one and number two choice goalkeepers will be substituted by Alberto Paleari due to injuries. Another key player in Cristian Zapata is also likely to sit out Sunday’s encounter and should be replaced by Paolo Ghiglione.
Expected Starting XI (4-4-2): Paleari; Ghiglione, Goldaniga, Bani, Masiello; Lerager, Badelj, Sturaro, Pellegrini; Scamacca, Shomodurov
Unavailable: Zapata (muscle injury), Perin (muscle injury), Biraschi (shoulder injury), Criscito (muscle injury), Cassata (muscle injury), Zappacosta (muscle injury), Marchetti
Recent form – Juventus
After a rather sluggish start under the guidance of Pirlo, Juve are finally starting to hit the ground running. The Bianconeri have moved up to 3rd place in the league standings and are level on points with Napoli. Juventus remain one of only the two teams who are still unbeaten in this Serie A campaign. However, despite their unbeaten run in the league, Pirlo’s men have collected the most draws out of all 20 teams (5 draws). Last week, Juve were only a minute away from their sixth draw of the season before Leonardo Bonucci sealed a last-gasp win over cross-city rivals Torino.
Despite a narrow 2-1 win, Juventus were conspicuously dominant throughout the whole match, having attempted 17 shots against Torino’s 7 and created 5 big chances missing 3 of them. Pirlo’s side finished the game with an xG of 2.14, which compared to Torino’s 1.08, fully reflected the scoreline.
In general, Juventus form in front of goal has improved in the most recent matches. The Old Lady have scored 7 goals in the last 3 matches, including the Champions League, averaging 2.0 goals per game this season. They are among the leaders for npxG as well (20.17), which is the 3rd-best result in the Serie A. Like Milan, Juve are heavily reliant on their talisman striker Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese has already scored 8 goals this season, which is 40% of Juve’s total goals tally.
However, as good as their attack is, Juventus’ success lies mostly in their defensive performances. The Bianconeri have the joint-best defensive in the Serie A, together with Verona, having conceded only 8 goals so far this season (avg. 0.80 per game). Their xGA of 8.75 (expected goals against) further strengthens the general consensus about Juve’s solidity at the back.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Juventus
After a 4-4-2 tactical set-up in the Derby della Mole, Pirlo is set to return to a three-man defensive system. Juan Cuadrado is expected to slot in at left wing-back, with the rest of the backline consisting of Alex Sandro, Leonardo Bonucci, Danilo and Federico Chiesa at right wing-back. Ronaldo and Paulo Dybala are expected to start up front, with Alvaro Morata still missing out after receiving a straight red card in a game against Benevento.
Expected Starting XI (3-4-1-2): Szczesny; Danilo, Bonucci, Alex Sandro; Chiesa, Bentancur, McKennie, Cuadrado; Kulusevski, Dybala, Cristiano Ronaldo
Unavailable: Pinsoglio (red card), Morata (red card), Demiral (muscle injury), Chiellini (physical discomfort)
Genoa vs Juventus – Previous Meetings
Sunday’s game will be the 114th meeting between the two teams. So far, Juventus have been clear favorites of this tie, having won a remarkable 69 times (61.6% win ratio) from the last 113 matches. In contrast, Genoa’s record against Juve is much worse, having been on the winning side only 22 times in 90 years.
Back in June, Juventus claimed their 69th win in history over Genoa, as goals from Dybala, Cristiano Ronaldo and Douglas Costa set the Old Lady on the way to a 3-1 victory.
Conclusion
All in all, Juve are the undoubted favorites to win this game and should easily come away with all three points. A game against Torino was Ronaldo’s only occasion this season when he failed to find the back of the net despite playing the full 90 minutes. Consequently, it can be only bad news for Genoa, with the Portuguese beast looking to redeem himself on Sunday.