A hectic fixture list containing double gameweeks has kicked in, leaving teams with no time to rest. In Round 13 of Serie A, Inter will be looking to make it two wins out of two this week, as Antonio Conte’s men take on Spezia at Stadio San Siro.
On Wednesday night, the Nerazzurri sealed a vital 1-0 win against fellow title challengers Napoli that narrowed the gap at the top to just one point. Contrarily, Spezia played out a 2-2 draw against Bologna, which sees them suffering at the bottom of the league standings.
The Cult of Calcio is here to preview Inter’s attempt to climb to the top of the Serie A table for the first time this season, with an eye on the expected lineups of both teams.
Inter – Spezia
Serie A Round 13
Sunday, 20 December 2020
Kick-off at 15:00 (CET)
San Siro (Milan)
Recent Form – Inter
After the fifth consecutive league win on Wednesday night, Inter have a chance to climb to the top of the Serie A standings considering a slip up from Milan. The Nerazzurri are currently sitting 2nd in the league with 27 points, only one behind their cross-city rivals. It was Inter’s 5th win out of 6 possible in all competitions, showing one of the best winning runs among all top European leagues.
Despite a crucial win over their direct opponents for the league title, Inter were second best in a game against Napoli. Conte’s men enjoyed 41% possession and attempted only 5 shots compared to Napoli’s 17, of which 2 were on target. However, both of these attempts at goal resulted in big scoring chances, one of which was a penalty successfully converted by Romelu Lukaku. On the other hand, Napoli wasted 4 glorious chances valued at 0.55, 0.44, 0.38 and 0.30 xG (expected goals) respectively. On the basis of full-time xG scores, Inter deserved to lose, having finished the game with an xG of 1.35 compared to Napoli’s 2.38.
Inter remain the highest-scoring team in the Serie A this season with 30 goals. Conte’s men have netted 7 times in the last 3 matches although their total season npxG (non-penalty expected goals) indicate a slight over-performance. Inter have accumulated an npxG of 24.4, only behind the first-placed Roma (npxG 24.5). However, it means that the Nerazzurri should have scored 6 goals fewer than their current goals tally suggest, which is quite a big drop off. To sum it up, Inter have collected 5 points too many at this stage of the season, as evaluated by an xPTS (expected points) metric, which has placed Inter in 5th position.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Inter
Conte is expected to have a nearly full-strength squad at his disposal for Sunday’s game with Spezia, with Alexis Sanchez the only notable absentee. Achraf Hakimi and Ivan Perisic are both likely to get the nod ahead of Matteo Darmian and Ashley Young, while Arturo Vidal should replace Roberto Gagliardini in central midfield.
Expected Starting XI (3-5-2): Handanovic; Skriniar, de Vrij, Bastoni; Hakimi, Brozovic, Vidal, Barella, Perisic; Lautaro Martinez, Lukaku
Unavailable: Sanchez (muscle injury), Vecino (knee injury), Pinamonti (muscle injury)
Recent Form – Spezia
Spezia’s league form has not been great this season to say the least. The Aquilotti have won only once in the last 8 matches, losing two of the last four. Vincenzo Italiano’s men are currently 16th in the league standings with 11 points, only four points above the drop zone.
On Wednesday night, Spezia collected only their second point in four matches for which they can blame only themselves. Italiano’s men had a two-goal lead until the 72nd minute in a game against Bologna but managed to concede twice and could have eventually lost if not for a missed penalty by Musa Barrow in the seventh minute of stoppage time. The Little Eagles created a remarkable 6 big chances during the 90 minutes but missed 4 of them. They finished the game with an xG of 2.81 against Bologna’s 1.73 and should have comfortably collected all three points.
Spezia’s glaring defensive issues are at the forefront of their poor performances. They have the 2nd worst defensive record in the league (25 goals conceded) and an xGA (expected goals against) of 23.2, indicating that it is not just a stroke of bad luck. To further back up our point, we look at some of the defensive metrics, which are not in Spezia’s favor. The Aquilotti are ranked last among all the Serie A teams for two of the following metrics: Number of blocked shots per game and number of blocked passes per game. It implies that Spezia have some serious defensive issues that must be addressed in order to stop conceding so many goals.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Spezia
Italiano will be definitely looking for solutions to his team’s defensive problems, with half of Spezia’s backline, which performed poorly against Bologna, expected to sit out Sunday’s clash with Inter. Claudio Terzi looks to be recalled to the starting lineup in place of Julian Chabot, whilst Simone Bastoni should start ahead of Riccardo Marchizza at left-back. The front three of Emmanuel Gyasi, Kevin Agudelo and M’Bala Nzola will be looking to impose a threat on Inter’s back three.
Expected Starting XI (4-3-3): Provedel; Ferrer, Terzi, Erlic, Bastoni; Estevez, Ricci, Maggiore; Gyasi, Agudelo, Nzola.
Unavailable: Mattiello (muscle injury), Galabinov (muscle injury), Zoet (groin injury), Capradossi (sprained knee), Verde, Dell’Orco, Leo Sena
Inter vs Spezia – Previous Meetings
On Sunday, both teams will meet only for the 2nd time in their history. The only previous match was played more than 30 years ago in 1989. Back then, Inter sealed a narrow 1-0 thanks Jurgen Klinsmann’s goal.
Conclusion
It seems that not even the most die-hard Spezia fans would expect anything from this game. Inter have been banging goals left and right recently, while Spezia have conceded 10 in the last 4 matches. Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez have consolidated one of the best striker partnerships in Europe in what is shaping up to be a comfortable home win for the Nerazzurri.