In midweek, the Serie A teams have entered a period of hectic festive schedule, with games being played every three days. In Round 13, the league leaders Milan travel to Sassuolo in the hope of extending a remarkable 12-game unbeaten run.
Both teams come into this game after securing a point on Wednesday night. Sassuolo played out a 1-1 draw away at Fiorentina, despite going ahead early in the game, whereas Milan pulled out a late comeback against Genoa which preserved their unbeaten run.
The Cult of Calcio previews one of the most exciting matches of this weekend, with an eye on the probable lineups of both teams.
Sassuolo – Milan
Serie A Round 13
Sunday, 20 December 2020
Kick-off at 15:00 (CET)
Mapei Stadium (Sassuolo)
Recent form – Sassuolo
After a heavy 3-0 defeat to Inter three weeks ago, Sassuolo have returned to their impressive early-season form, having collected 5 points in the last 3 matches. The Neroverdi are currently sitting 6th in the league standings on 23 points, four points clear of the seventh-placed Verona and only five points behind the Serie A leaders and Sunday’s opponents Milan.
On Wednesday night, Sassuolo extended their unbeaten league run up to three matches, having drawn 1-1 away to Fiorentina. It proved to be a much tougher encounter for Roberto De Zerbi’s men even though Fiorentina are currently only three points of the drop zone, sitting in 17th place. On one hand, Sassuolo dominated the positional play by having a remarkable 67% of ball possession, but it did not result in as many goal-scoring opportunities as you could probably expect.
The Neroverdi had 13 attempts at goal, in comparison to Fiorentina’s 16 (33% ball possession), with only 5 hitting the target (38.5% accuracy), which ended up as 3 big chances of which 2 were missed. Sassuolo finished the game with an xG (expected goals) of 1.54 compared to Fiorentina’s 1.94, although their only goal of the game was a penalty.
It would be fair to say that Sassuolo’s impressive position in the league standings cannot be ignored, with De Zerbi deserving a massive amount of credit. However, when we look at some of the key performance indicators, it becomes quite obvious that in most matches Sassuolo have been overperforming thus far this season.
The Neroverdi are 7th in the league for goals scored (22) and 11th for non-penalty expected goals (npxG). However, Sassuolo’s npxG is valued only at 14.30, which is almost 8 goals fewer than the actual number of goals scored. Additionally, De Zerbi’s men have the 4th best defence in the Serie A, having so far conceded only 13 goals. But once again, if we take a closer look at Sassuolo’s xGA (expected goals against) value, it suggests a huge defensive overperformance. According to expected goals against metric, Sassuolo should have conceded 18 goals instead of 13 they have conceded so far, leaving them with only 15.23 xPTS (expected points). All in all, Sassuolo have been the most overachieving side in the Serie A so far this season.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Sassuolo
Congested fixture list leaves managers with no other choice but making rotations. De Zerbi is no exception in this instance as he is expected to make at least five changes following the midweek encounter with Fiorentina.
Marlon Santos and Gian Marco Ferrari should both start ahead of Vlad Chiriches and Federico Peluso, forming a completely new center-back partnership. In central midfield, Maxime Lopez is expected to slot in place of Pedro Obiang, with Filip Djuricic occupying a “number 10” role. Upfront, Sassuolo’s top scorer of the season Francesco Caputo should be favored over Giacomo Raspadori.
Expected Starting XI (4-3-1-2): Consigli; Toljan, Marlon, Ferrari, Rogerio; Lopez, Locatelli; Berardi, Boga, Djuricic; Caputo
Unavailable: Romagna (knee injury), Pegolo, Chiriches, Defrel, Traore (U-23 African Cup)
Recent form – Milan
Milan have been one of the most talked-about teams in the Serie A this season and rightly so. The Rossoneri have been topping the league standings for 9 consecutive matchdays since October 26. Stefano Pioli’s men are currently a point clear of their fiercest cross-city rivals Inter, a margin that has diminished following a 2-2 draw away at Genoa in midweek.
On Wednesday night, Milan had to come from behind twice to preserve and extend their unbeaten league run. Although from the first look it seems that Milan were lucky to come away with a point, the key performance metrics suggest otherwise. Pioli’s side dominated during big parts of the game, having 58% of ball possession and attempting 13 shots at Genoa’s goal. In fact, the Rossoneri would have come away as deserved winners if not of their wastefulness in front of goal. Milan created 4 big chances during the entire game but failed to convert 3 of them. The league leaders ended the match with an xG of 2.22, in comparison with Genoa’s 1.15, which implies that Milan should have sealed all three points.
Despite Milan’s impressive unbeaten run in the league, the Serie A leaders fell into the category of overperforming teams. The Rossoneri are the joint 2nd-highest-scoring team in the league with 27 goals (avg. 2.25 per game), but their npxG (non-penalty expected goals) of 21.4 indicates that Milan are not as free-flowing in the attack as the number of goals scored might suggest. Pioli’s men are 4th in the league for goal-creating actions per 90 minutes, creating on average 3.42 scoring opportunities per game. Their xPTS (expected points) of 25.85 show a slight overperformance compared to the actual points accumulated (28).
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Milan
Milan’s top scorer of the season Zlatan Ibrahimovic seemed to be ready to come back, but during his last training session got injured again and is not likely to be featured again until the new year at least.
In other news, Theo Hernandez is expected to start ahead of Diogo Dalot at left-back, which looks like the only potential change to be made by Pioli versus his last outing.
Expected Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Calabria, Kalulu, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Tonali, Kessié; Castillejo, Leao, Calhanoglu; Rebic
Unavailable: Hernandez (muscle injury), Bennacer (thigh injury), Gabbia (knee injury), Kjaer (to be assessed), Ibrahimovic (to be assessed)
Sassuolo vs Milan – Previous Meetings
This will be only the 16th meeting between the two teams, with Milan as the more successful of the two. So far, the Rossoneri have won 9 matches against Sassuolo, losing 4 and drawing the other 2. In the most recent match in July, Milan came away 2-1 winners thanks to two goals from Ibrahimovic.
Conclusion
A forecast of Sunday’s match outcome is extremely hard to make. Although missing Ibrahimovic, Milan continue collecting precious points and will be in the hunt of three more this Sunday. In contrast, a win for Sassuolo would leave them only two points behind the league leaders, an unprecedented achievement for De Zerbi’s men.