The new year has just arrived, but the Serie A teams are already busy fighting for precious points following a short 10-day winter break. In Round 16, we welcome the first Clash of The Titans in 2021, as league leaders Milan will be looking to further increase the gap at the top of the table against historic rivals Juventus at the Stadio San Siro.
Both teams come into this game after collecting important points on matchday 15 last Sunday. Milan have extended their unbeaten run to 15 games with a 2-0 win away to Benevento. In contrast, the Old Lady had an even easier weekend, having thumped Udinese 4-1 as Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice taking his Serie A season goal tally to 14.
The Cult of Calcio is here to preview arguably the most intriguing match of the midweek, with an eye on the probable lineups of both teams.
Milan – Juventus
Serie A Round 16
Wednesday, 6 January 2021
Kick-off at 20:45 (CET)
Stadio San Siro (Milan)
Recent Form – Milan
Perhaps it only looked like a distant dream after the first few match-days of the 2020-21 Serie A season, but now Milan are truly in pursuit of their first Scudetto in 10 years. A 2-0 victory over Benevento on the weekend means that the Rossoneri have extended their dominance at the top of the Serie A standings for the 11th consecutive match-day. Stefano Pioli’s men remain one point clear of their cross-city rivals Inter, having won 11 and drawn 4, meaning Milan are the only team left without a single loss this Serie A campaign.
Despite Milan’s seemingly comfortable win against Benevento on Sunday, the match could have gone either way, as Sandro Tonali received a straight red card in the 33rd minute of the first half. After taking an early lead thanks to a goal from Franck Kessie, Milan were forced to sit back and soak up the pressure for the remained of the game due to Tonali’s red card.
The Rossoneri were second best in pretty much every department after being reduced to ten men, having enjoyed only 34% possession and conceded 19 attempts at their goal. However, even such a one-way traffic performance did not stop Milan from scoring, with Rafael Leao doubling the Rossoneri’s lead in the second half. It turned out to be Milan’s only shot on target in the second-half as Benevento missed a penalty in the 61st minute that would have brought them back into the game.
The league leaders finished the game with an xG (expected goals) of 1.41, which compared to Benevento’s 2.60 suggests Milan could have suffered their first loss of the season.
In general, Milan remain one of the top overperforming teams in the Serie A this season. Pioli’s men are ranked 2nd for the most goals scored in the league, having netted 34 times so far (avg. 2.3 goals), with the goal difference of plus 18 (2nd best). However, Kessié’s successfully converted penalty on Sunday was Milan’s 10th attempted spot-kick this season – the highest number among all Serie A clubs.
Even though Milan are ranked 4th for npxG (non-penalty expected goals), their npxG is only set at 24.8, which is 9 goals fewer than their actual goal tally. It implies that Milan are far from the attacking power their goals scored suggest; however, it also means that Pioli knows how to set his team up to grind out results.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Milan
On Wednesday, Pioli will have to cope without his star striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who will miss his eighth straight Serie A game after suffering a calf injury against Napoli in late November. The Belgian midfielder Alexis Saelemaekers is also unavailable for selection and will keep him out of action until February. Thus, Samu Castillejo and Rafael Leao are almost guaranteed to keep their place in the starting eleven.
Expected Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Calabria, Kjaer, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Krunic, Kessié; Castillejo, Calhanoglu, Rebic; Rafael Leao
Unavailable: Ibrahimovic (calf injury), Saelemaekers (thigh injury), Bennacer (thigh injury); Gabbia (knee injury), Tonali (red card)
Recent Form – Juventus
A couple of days before Christmas, Juventus were only 4 points behind the Serie A leaders Milan. Two more wins and the Old Lady would have come into this game with a chance of closing the gap to only one point. However, a shocking 0-3 defeat to Fiorentina and the cancellation of their previously awarded win against Napoli mean that Pirlo’s men are currently 10 points behind the table leaders. Following a convincing win against Udinese on matchday 15, Juve find themselves 4th in the standings but only 2 points ahead of the seventh-placed Atalanta.
Speaking of the match on Sunday, the Bianconeri fought-back in solid fashion and showed exactly why they are the reigning Serie A champions despite suffering an embarrassing defeat to Fiorentina before Christmas. It was a well-deserved victory for Pirlo’s men, as their solid performance on the pitch was reflected by some of the key performance metrics.
Juventus dominated the positional play throughout the match with 63% possession, which produced 20 shots at Udinese’s goal, 10 of which hit the target. The Bianconeri created 5 big scoring chances in the game, converting 3 of them as they finished the match with an xG of 2.49.
Despite having the second-best defensive record in the league (14 goals conceded) and the second-best npxGA (non-penalty expected goals against) score of 12.99, Juventus seem to be struggling in front of the opposing goal. Pirlo’s men are currently only 6th for goals scored (29), having recorded an npxG of 27.92. It seems that Juventus’ problem lies in their poor shooting quality despite creating the third-highest number of shooting actions in the Serie A (25.79 shot actions per 90).
We can further back this up by the key shooting metrics, which show that Juventus score only 0.33 goals per every shot on target (9th place in the league). Moreover, the Old Lady are severely lacking another proven goalscorer since Cristiano Ronaldo has scored nearly half of Juventus total goals this season (14).
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Juventus
Although the current season has been heavily affected by the pandemic, Juventus are one of the teams that somehow have managed to stay relatively injury-free. They weren’t immune from COVID, however, and it’s recent news that both Alex Sandro and Juan Cuadrado will miss the game as he just tested positive for coronavirus.
Alvaro Morata is also expected to miss Juve’s trip to Milan after sustaining a muscle injury before Christmas. A 4-1 win over Udinese should see Pirlo sticking to a similar starting eleven, with only Federico Chiesa switching to left wing-back role to cover for Alex Sandro’s absence while Juan Cuadrado retakes his spot on the right flank.
Expected Starting XI (3-4-1-2): Szczesny; Danilo, Bonucci, de Ligt; Frabotta, Bentancur, McKennie, Chiesa; Ramsey; Dybala, Cristiano Ronaldo
Unavailable: Morata (muscle injury), Alex Sandro (COVID), Cuadrado (COVID)
Milan vs Juventus – Previous Meetings
On Wednesday night, both teams will meet for the 194th time in history. Historically, Juventus have a better record of the two, having won 76 times (39.4% win ratio) compared to Milan’s 50 wins (25.9% win ratio).
In the most recent match back in July, Milan displayed one of the greatest comebacks in recent years, as they came from 2-0 down to beat their Wednesday rivals 4-2.
Conclusion
Even though we are only 15 games into the season, the clash on Wednesday looks absolutely massive for both teams. In the first place, Milan will want to make another statement by beating last season’s champions and thus preserve their lead at the top. Secondly, Juventus simply cannot afford to lose, as the gap between themselves and Milan would increase to 13 points. All in all, it should be a cracking game that both teams will not want to lose.