The Serie A teams are back in league action after the first legs of the Semi Finals of the Coppa Italia earlier this week. In Round 21, we welcome the clash of the two title contenders as Andrea Pirlo’s Juventus host the third-placed Roma at the Allianz Stadium in Turin.
In midweek, Juve made a big step towards reaching their 20th Coppa Italia final in history after beating their arch-rivals Inter 2-1. Contrarily, Roma ended their cup run as early as the Round-of-16, having suffered an unexpected defeat to Spezia.
The Cult of Calcio is here to preview the main battle of the weekend, with an eye on the probable lineups of both teams.
Juventus – Roma
Serie A Round 21
Saturday, 6 February 2021
Kick-off at 18:00 (CET)
Allianz Stadium (Turin)
Recent Form – Juventus
Juventus’ most recent form has been impressive; Pirlo’s men have not lost since mid-January and are currently on a five-game winning streak in all competitions. At this moment, the Bianconeri are sitting 4th in the league table with 39 points, seven behind the Serie A leaders Milan; however, Pirlo’s men also have a game in hand that potentially reduces the gap to just four points.
In the last Serie A match, Juventus traveled to Genoa where they faced Claudio Ranieri’s Sampdoria. Although the reigning champions were not fully up to speed, they had the game under control for most parts throughout the 90 minutes, having enjoyed 62% possession, and overall looked more of a threat than the home side. In this game, Juve had 9 attempts at goal, of which 3 tested Sampdoria’s goalkeeper (33.3% accuracy), but most importantly, the black and whites created 3 big goal-scoring opportunities and managed to successfully convert 2 of those. Pirlo’s men finished the game with expected goals (xG) of 1.45 compared to Sampdoria’s 0.65.
Although from the first glance, this season Juventus seem to be firing below their usual standards of recent years; the stats portray a different picture. The Bianconeri rank only 6th for goals scored after 19 matches (avg. 2.1 goals per game), but they have the third-best non-penalty expected goals per game (npxG) record in the division (1.83 npxG). It means that Juve do create quality chances in front of the opposing goal, but they are simply not clinical enough on most occasions. To support this, Pirlo’s men rank only 9th in the league for goals scored for every shot on target (0.33 goals). Although Juve hit the target fairly regularly – ranked 4th in the league for shots on target – it seems that the opposing goalkeepers deal with their goal attempts fairly easily.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Juventus
On Saturday evening, Pirlo will have to cope without Paulo Dybala who remains sidelined with a knee injury. Moreover, following Juve’s win against Inter on Tuesday night, Pirlo is expected to make a handful of changes in his starting lineup. Wojciech Szczesny, Leonardo Bonucci, Georgio Chiellini, Danilo, Federico Chiesa, Arthur and Alvaro Morata should all make a return after being rested in midweek.
Expected Starting XI (3-5-2): Szczesny; Bonucci, Chiellini, Danilo; Cuadrado, McKennie, Arthur, Rabiot, Chiesa; Morata, Cristiano Ronaldo
Unavailable: Bentancur (red card); Dybala (knee injury)
Recent Form – Roma
Following two consecutive 3-0 defeats – including the league and the Coppa Italia – Roma have bounced back in the last two games, having collected all six points, scoring seven goals in total. After 20 games, the Giallorossi are 3rd in the league with 40 points, six behind the leaders Milan. The dream of winning their first Scudetto title since 2001 is still very much alive, though a defeat on Saturday evening could severely hinder Roma’s chances.
In their last Serie A match against Hellas Verona, Roma showed exactly why they should be considered as real title contenders. Paulo Fonseca’s men scored three first-half goals to claim a comprehensive 3-1 win over Verona, who conceded more than two goals for the first time this season. Prior to their game against Roma, the Gialloblu had the second-best defensive record in the league, making Roma’s victory even more impressive. Overall, Fonseca’s side dominated the game in terms of chance creation, having attempted 15 shots against the opponent’s 8, which resulted in 3 big goal-scoring opportunities. Roma finished the game with 1.98 xG compared to Verona’s 0.66.
This season, Roma are one of the best-attacking teams in the Serie A, having scored 44 goals, making it the third-best result among all teams. In fact, what is even more impressive about Roma’s attack is their non-penalty expected goals (npxG) record, which is the best in the league at the moment set at 38.5. It can be supported by the fact that Fonseca’s men create the third-highest number of goal actions per 90 minutes (3.85) and also have the third-best goals per shot on target ratio in the Serie A (0.37 goals per shot on target).
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Roma
Fonseca is expected to alter his tactical set-up from 3-4-2-1 to 3-5-2, as Lorenzo Pellegrini will have to miss Saturday’s clash due to suspension. Roma’s leading goalscorer this season, Henrik Mkhitaryan, is likely to partner Borja Mayoral upfront, while Bryan Cristante will replace the aforementioned Pellegrini in a three-man midfield.
Expected Starting XI (3-5-2): Pau Lopez; Mancini, Ibanez, Kumbulla; Karsdorp, Villar, Cristante, Veretout, Spinazzola; Mkhitaryan, Borja Mayoral
Unavailable: Pellegrini (red card); Smalling (hamstring injury); Pedro (muscle injury); Zaniolo (ACL injury)
Juventus vs Roma – Previous Meetings
This will be the 189th meeting between the two sides, with Juventus leading the way with 88 wins in all competitions (46.8% win ratio), whilst Roma have had almost half as many wins with 47 (25% win ratio).
Nevertheless, looking at the most recent history, Roma have lost only once in the last four matches, with the first head-to-head meeting this season ending in a two-all draw.
Conclusion
The match is set to be a cracking six-pointer given the quality of both teams and the fact that losing this game might signal the end to title hopes. Juventus could be considered as slight favorites overall, considering their five-game unbeaten run; however, Roma have scored seven in their last two matches and look firing as well. It portrays to be a high-scoring match, with the winner hard to predict.