Morally-damaged Milan will hope to restore some confidence when they meet a struggling Spezia side at the Stadio Alberto Picco on Saturday. Stefano Pioli’s men have had a few days to recover from an underwhelming Champions League night as their stuttering pursuit of a Serie A top-four finish enters the crunch period.
Despite entering 2023 with a comfortable eight-point cushion on the red zone, Spezia head into this round three points adrift of safety following an abysmal 2-0 defeat at Cremonese last weekend. With only four games left, the hosts face a race against time to rediscover their feet in Serie A and extend a top-flight stay for a third consecutive season.
However, they have only won one of their last 16 league matches (D6, L9), and winning precious points against top-four-bidding Milan looks highly unlikely. Adding to this sentiment, Leonardo Semplici’s men have failed to get on the scoresheet in seven of their last nine home outings in Serie A (W1, D3, L5), casting further doubt on their hopes of getting their faltering season back on track down the final stretch.
Spezia’s rotten spell of form could benefit Milan’s quest to secure a third successive top-four finish. That remains the most credible way for the Rossoneri to ensure Champions League qualification next season after fierce rivals Inter thrashed them 2-0 in the first leg of their semi-final tie on Wednesday.
The nominal visitors’ blitzkrieg inside the opening 11 minutes caught Pioli’s team off guard, putting Milan in front of a Herculean task ahead of next week’s return leg. Inter could, in fact, completely ruin their neighbors’ season as they hold a two-point lead over them coming into this round. As such, nothing less than victory will do for the Rossoneri in Liguria.
Match Preview
Spezia
Scoring has been a genuine issue for Spezia in 2023. They have drawn a blank in ten of their 19 top-flight games since the calendar year flipped. That’s as many scoring blanks as they had in 34 Serie A matches in 2022, highlighting the importance of the anticipated return of star striker M’Bala Nzola to the starting lineup following a minor fitness problem.
But Aquilotti are no strangers to upsetting a more heavily fancied Milan, having won twice in their last four Serie A encounters (L2). Yet Spezia must not only defy the odds to emerge victorious on Saturday. After going winless in eight straight league outings in the lead-up to this clash (D3, L5), they could register their longest-ever streak without a win in Serie A.
Player to Watch: M’Bala Nzola
N’Zola has been a rare shining light in an otherwise humiliating season for Spezia, netting almost half of his side’s goals in Serie A (13/28). He’ll have an added motive to add to his tally this weekend after never scoring against Milan in the top flight.
Milan
With only 46% of Milan’s Serie A points coming in 2023 (28/61), it’s no wonder the dethroned champions cannot take anything for granted despite arriving in Liguria as odds-on favorites. Indeed, not since 2016/17 (20) had Milan mustered fewer points in the second half of the season than this term (23 – W6, D5, L4).
On a more positive note, Pioli’s lads have gone unbeaten in their last 17 away league contests against sides starting the round in the bottom three (W11, D6). However, after drawing back-to-back Serie A away games against Bologna and Roma, Milan could share the spoils on three top-flight travels in a row for the first time since 2017.
With that in mind, the upcoming meeting with out-of-sorts Spezia couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment for the Rossoneri.
Player to Watch: Theo Hernandez
Hernandez’s stunning strike against Lazio last weekend could be in contention for the goal of the season. But more importantly, the Frenchman has tallied four Serie A goals in 2022/23, one of which came in a 2-1 win over Spezia in the reverse fixture.
Team News
Despite welcoming Nzola back to the fold, Spezia will take the field severely crippled by injuries. Julius Beck, Joao Moutinho, Jacopo Sala, Emil Holm, and Daniele Maldini are still in the treatment room, giving a sizeable headache to manager Semplici ahead of this potentially season-defining match-up.
As for Milan, besides Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Pioli is still sweating over the fitness of headline performer Rafael Leao and midfield metronome Ismael Bennacer. While the former had to stay on the sidelines against Inter after suffering a thigh problem against Lazio, the latter picked up a knock in midweek Champions League action.
Spezia vs Milan Potential Lineups
Spezia (4-3-3): Bartlomiej Dragowski; Kelvin Amian, Ethan Ampadu, Dimitrios Nikolaou, Arkadiusz Reca; Salvatore Esposito, Albin Ekdal, Mehdi Bourabia; Daniele Verde, M’Bala Nzola, Emmanuel Gyasi.
Milan (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan; Davide Calabria, Pierre Kalulu, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Sandro Tonali, Rade Krunic; Alexis Saelemaekers, Charles De Ketelaere, Ante Rebic; Divock Origi.
Spezia vs Milan Prediction
With a massive second-leg encounter against Inter waiting in the wings, Pioli could opt to field his second-string lineup again. But while that choice backfired on his team several times this season, one goal could prove enough for the Rossoneri to see off their misfiring hosts.
Prediction: Milan Win
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