Later than usual, the Serie A sees the start of the second part of the season this weekend as teams are ready to battle their way up in the next 19 games. In Round 20, the reigning Scudetto winners Juventus travel to Genoa where they will take on Claudio Ranieri’s Sampdoria.
Both teams come into this game after securing important wins on match-day 19 last weekend. Sampdoria got the better of Parma thanks to the two first-half goals from Maya Yoshida and Keita Balde, whilst Juve managed to overcome Bologna’s resistance with the same scoreline before progressing to the Semi Finals of the Coppa Italia on Wednesday night.
The Cult of Calcio is here to preview Juventus’ attempt to climb into a top-three spot for the first time this season, with an eye on the potential lineups of both teams.
Sampdoria – Juventus
Serie A Round 20
Saturday, 30 January 2021
Kick-off at 18:00 (CET)
Luigi Ferraris Stadium (Genoa)
Recent Form – Sampdoria
Over the last month or so, Sampdoria have been one of the more consistent performers in terms of the league standings. Ranieri’s men have not dropped below the eleventh place since December 19 but at the same time, they have not been in the top ten since early November. Nonetheless, despite their stagnant position in the league, Sampdoria have won 5 out of the last 8 matches since mid-December.
Ranieri’s side are currently sitting 10th in the Serie A standings with 26 points in their bag, 8 behind the sixth-placed Napoli. Impressively, Sampdoria have been victorious in 3 of the last 4 league matches, including a stunning 2-1 win over the Serie A title contenders, Inter. In their last game, the Blucerchiati claimed a convincing 2-0 win over Parma.
Although the key stats indicated a fairly equal game, Sampdoria were worthy winners in the end, having created by far the better chances of the two teams. Against Parma, Ranieri’s men had 49% of possession and 11 attempts at goal, same as the opponents, with only 3 hitting the target. However, they managed to create 3 big goal-scoring opportunities and ended up converting 2 of those. Sampdoria finished the game with an xG (expected goals) of 1.73 compared to Parma’s 0.47, who failed to create a single big chance throughout the entire game.
Sampdoria’s ability to score goals from a few chances created has been their trademark this season. Ranieri’s men have scored 30 goals so far this season (9th in the league), but their npxG (non-penalty expected goals) metric indicates a massive overperformance in goals scored department. After 19 games, Sampdoria have recorded only 19.9 npxG, which places them in the bottom four. However, the following stats of shots on target and goals per shot on target explain why Sampdoria have been doing better than they should have this season.
Ranieri’s side are only 14th in the league for hitting the target (31.4%), but at the same time, they have the best goals per shot on target ratio in the Serie A with 0.42. It implies that although Sampdoria do struggle with shooting accuracy in most matches, once they do hit the target, they have the highest chance of scoring compared to the rest of the Serie A teams.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Sampdoria
On Saturday night, Ranieri will have to cope without one of his defensive leaders in Lorenzo Tonelli. In midfield, Adrien Silva is expected to make his way for Albin Ekdal while Jakub Jankto should replace Gaston Ramirez. Keita Balde and Fabio Quagliarella have scored ten goals combined this season and will likely lead the line again on Saturday.
Expected Starting XI (4-4-2): Audero; Bereszynski, Yoshida, Colley, Augello; Candreva, Silva, Ekdal, Jankto; Keita, Quagliarella
Unavailable: Gabbiadini (abdominal injury); Tonelli; Ferrari (hamstring injury)
Recent Form – Juventus
After suffering a disappointing 2-0 defeat to Inter a fortnight ago, Juventus have managed to pick themselves up once again and bounce back with three consecutive victories in all competitions. At first, Andrea Pirlo’s men have secured their first silverware of the 2020-21 season, having beaten Napoli 2-0 in the Supercoppa Italiana. It followed with two more victories, including a 2-0 win over Bologna and 4-0 thrashing of SPAL in the quarter-final of the Coppa Italia.
Despite the successful performances in most recent matches, the Bianconeri’s first part of the 2020-21 Serie A campaign has been far from convincing. The defending champions are currently sitting 4th in the league standings with 36 points, and a game in hand following an overturn of their win against Napoli back in October. In their most recent Serie A match, Juve came away 2-0 winners at home to Bologna.
Although Pirlo’s side were not as dominant in possession as one could expect – 52% ball possession against Bologna’s 48% – the 36-time Scudetto winners were a much bigger threat going forward than their opponents. Juventus had a total of 23 goal attempts in this game, with 11 of those hitting the target (47.8% accuracy), as well as created 6 big scoring chances but failed to convert 5 of them. They finished the game with an xG of 3.32 compared to Bologna’s 0.51 and were deserved winners in the end.
Juventus’ lack of clinical finishing in front of goal has been a glaring issue so far this season. The Bianconeri have scored the fewest number of goals among the current top six teams in the league (37 goals scored) despite having the second-best shots on target percentage of 36.7%. Juve’s poor finishing is reflected by their fairly low goals per shot on target ratio (0.32), which places them only 11th in the league.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Juventus
After making several changes in the midweek Coppa Italia clash against SPAL, Pirlo is expected to field his strongest lineup on Saturday. Leonardo Bonucci, Danilo and Juan Cuadrado were all rested on Wednesday night and will likely return to action against Sampdoria, including Federico Chiesa, who came on as a substitute in the 67th minute of the game. Following a knee injury to Paulo Dybala, Alvaro Morata is expected to start alongside Cristiano Ronaldo.
Expected Starting XI (3-5-2): Szczesny; de Ligt, Bonucci, Danilo, Cuadrado, McKennie, Bentancur, Arthur, Chiesa; Morata; Cristiano Ronaldo
Unavailable: Kulusevski (red card); Paulo Dybala (knee injury)
Sampdoria vs Juventus – Previous Meetings
Both teams will go head-to-head for the 130th time in their history, with Juventus leading the way with 65 wins (50.4% win ratio) against Sampdoria’s 27 victories (20.9% win ratio). Looking at the most recent history, Juventus have come away winners in the last three matches, including a 3-0 home win in late September this season.
Conclusion
Sampdoria will be looking to cause another major upset following their tremendous beating of Inter two weeks ago. In contrast, Juventus have scored eight without conceding in the last three matches in all competitions and are still within reachable distance of the first-placed Milan. More dropped points would be a total disaster for Pirlo’s men; therefore, we should expect the reigning champions to up their game on Saturday.