While Milan have been on the top of the Serie A charts for the past weeks, Inter were considered as the uncrowned leaders and the consensus favorites to lift the Scudetto title ahead of their postponed away encounter against Bologna.
However, a bizarre evening at the Renato Dall’Ara changed the whole scenery. The reigning champions succumbed to defeat at the hands of their Emilian hosts led by a caretaker manager, while Ionut Radu left the pitch in tears after committing a deadly howler.
With four rounds to go, we finally have a clear vision for the title race, with the two heavyweight contenders on level in terms of the number of matches played. So which Milanese side is the favorite to lift the Scudetto trophy at the end of the season?
We’ll try to analyze the situation at the top of the table from various angles.
Table
After round 34, Milan are the league leaders with 74 points while Inter are sit second with 72. While the first Derby della Madonnina ended in a 1-1 draw, Olivier Giroud’s brace in the reverse fixture turned the tide in the Rossoneri’s favor. Hence, if the two sides end the season with the same amount of points, Stefano Pioli’s men would be crowned champions thanks to their superior head-to-head record.
Therefore, we can say that in addition to their two extra points, Milan have another theoretical half-point in the bag, which could make all the difference at the end of the day.
Advantage: Milan
Schedule
As we mentioned above, Milan are currently leading by two points while having the head-to-head advantage. This means that the Diavolo can win the league if they amass another 10 points from the last four rounds regardless of Inter’s results.
But of course that’s easier said than done. Let’s check out the remaining fixtures for both title contenders.
Milan: Fiorentina (H), Verona (A), Atalanta (H), Sassuolo (A)
Inter: Udinese (A), Empoli (H), Cagliari (A), Sampdoria (H)
At first glance, one would immediately assume that the Rossoneri have a thornier path towards the title, and it’s hard to argue against such conclusion.
However, the past has taught us that in the final rounds of the campaign, it might be easier to play against mid-table clubs who are already planning their vacations rather than gritty lower-table sides that are fighting for their lives.
Therefore, the Nerazzurri could regret playing the likes of Cagliari and even Sampdoria who could also be embroiled in the relegation dogfight.
Nevertheless, the general scenery remains too obvious to debate, and we simply must admit that Milan will be facing significantly sterner competition compared to Inter.
Advantage: Inter
Experience
This season, we’re witnessing a battle between two managers who will be eager to register their first league title. Stefano Pioli is obviously more experienced as a tactician, but Simone Inzaghi rapidly matured during his tenure at Lazio.
As for the players, the Rossoneri squad features two proven winners in Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Olivier Giroud, but the rest of the squad generally lacks top-level experience. Several Milan stars only made their Champions League debuts this season.
On the other hand, Inter possess a slight advantage in terms of battle-hardened veterans. Even though Antonio Conte’s side faced minimal resistance in its path towards the title last season, these players know what it takes to reach the finish line.
Advantage: Inter
Morale
The mental aspect might just be one of the most undermined variables in sport. At the beginning of April, Inter earned a major dose of adrenaline after beating Juventus in the Derby d’Italia. On the hand, their crosstown rivals were dropping points left and right.
So when the high-flying Beneamata shrugged Roma aside last weekend, the writing was on the wall. This sentiment was heading towards confirmation with Milan struggling to beak the Lazio wall at the Olympico on the following day.
Nonetheless, the Diavolo’s were rewarded for their gutsy performance with a last-gasp winner from Sandro Tonali, whose strike completely shifted the mood in the Fashion Capital.
In fact, Inter looked tensed, uninspiring and confused during their ill-fated trip to Bologna. One would argue that Inzaghi’s men would have been much more at ease had their rivals dropped points against the Biancocelesti.
With the momentum in their favor, Milan undoubtedly have the advantage in this one.
Conclusion
All in all, this is surely the tightest Scudetto race we’ve had in a long while, and as Calcio fanatics, we can consider ourselves blessed to witness such an intriguing battle between two reawakened giants.
Although the schedule could play in the Nerazzurri’s favor, this won’t necessarily mean that they won’t drop points again in their remaining fixtures, especially with their morale hitting an all-time low following the great collapse at the Dall’Ara.
And while Milan are expected to trip at some point against their upcoming opponents, their two-point advantage (plus superior head-to-head) could be just enough for the Rossoneri to cross the finish line first and put the trophy in Alessio Romagnoli’s hands.