There is no time to rest during the congested Christmas period, as the Serie A teams return to action once again this Saturday. In Round 13, the reigning champions Juventus travel to Parma, where Andrea Pirlo’s men will be aiming to remain one of only two teams who are still undefeated this Serie A season.
Both Juve and Parma fought out a midweek draw only three days ago and will be looking to get back to winning ways. On Wednesday, Juventus had to settle to a 1-1 home draw against Atalanta, while Parma missed out on the chance to overtake their league neighbors Cagliari, as the game ended goalless.
The Cult of Calcio is here to preview one of three Serie A matches taking place on Saturday, with an eye on both teams’ starting lineups.
Parma – Juventus
Serie A Round 13
Saturday, 19 December 2020
Kick-off at 20:45 (CET)
Ennio Tardini Stadium (Parma)
Recent Form – Parma
On Wednesday night, Parma played out a third consecutive draw that sees the Crociati placed 14th in the league standings with 12 points. It was Parma’s 6th draw of the season, the most in the league together with Juventus, leaving Fabio Liverani’s men with only 2 wins from 12 matches.
Despite failing to score in a game against Cagliari, Parma were the better of the two sides and could have come away with all three points. The Crociati controlled the game in most parts during the 90 minutes, having 56% of ball possession and attempting 13 shots at the opposing goal. However, Parma’s shooting accuracy let them down massively, with only 2 shots hitting the target (15.4% accuracy). Surprisingly, both shots turned out to be big goal-scoring opportunities, valued at 0.48 and 0.24 xG (expected goals) respectively. Parma finished the game with an xG of 1.33, which should have been enough to beat Cagliari whose xG was only 0.30.
Parma’s struggles in front of goal are clearly visible, the Crociati have scored only 12 goals this season (17th result in the league), possessing the 2nd-lowest npxG (non-penalty expected goals) in the league of 10.82. Additionally, Liverani’s men are the league’s worst shooting team, with only 2.42 of their shots hitting the target (29.6% accuracy). They also create the least number of shot-creating actions per game (13.75) among all 20 teams, which provides a solid explanation of why Parma score so few goals.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Parma
Parma’s duo Giuseppe Pezzella and Matteo Scozzarella ended Wednesday’s game against Cagliari prematurely after injuring themselves in the first half, leaving them both sidelined for at least the next ten days. Riccardo Gagliolo and Hernani Junior look like the most obvious replacements in place of the injured duo.
Expected Starting XI (4-3-2-1): Sepe; Iacoponi, Osorio, Bruno Alves, Gagliolo; Hernani, Brugman, Kucka; Karamoh, Gervinho; Cornelius
Unavailable: Caviglia (muscle injury), Scozzarella (muscle injury), Pezzella (hamstring), Grassi (shoulder injury), Laurini
Recent Form – Juventus
After a one-all draw on Wednesday night at home with Atalanta, Juventus have extended their unbeaten league run up to 12 matches. However, a missed penalty from Cristiano Ronaldo means it was two points lost rather than one gained, which sees Juve currently sitting in 3rd place, four points behind the league leaders Milan.
In addition to Ronaldo’s penalty miss, the Bianconeri had at least 4 more glorious opportunities which went wasted. Alvaro Morata was responsible for 75% of them, missing all 3 big scoring chances valued at 0.58, 0.38 and 0.29 xG respectively. In total, Juve created 5 big goal-scoring opportunities during the 90 minutes compared to Atalanta’s just one. Despite not having large quantities of ball possession, the chances Juve created were more than enough to win the game 3-1, as suggested by an xG score at full-time (2.89-0.98).
Despite wasting so many goal-scoring chances against Atalanta, Juventus remain one of the best offensive teams in the Serie A. Pirlo’s men have the 5th best attack in the league (21 goals) and the 6th best npxG (non-penalty expected goals) valued at 18.6. However, their occasional shortcomings in front of the opposing goal are perfectly evaluated with the use of the goals per shot on target metric. Juve are only 14th among all 20 teams, on average scoring only 0.31 goals per shot on target. It implies that although the Bianconeri hit the target fairly often (5.00 shots on target per game, 7th result in Serie A) they are severely lacking quality in their shots, as was proven in a game against Atalanta.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Juventus
Pirlo does not look like experimenting in this time of the year and is expected to field a similar team to the one on Wednesday night. Arthur will have to miss out after suffering a thigh injury, while Weston McKennie should make his way for Dejan Kulusevski.
Expected Starting XI (3-4-1-2): Szczesny; De Ligt, Bonucci, Danilo; Cuadrado, Bentancur, Rabiot, Chiesa; Kulusevski, Morata, Cristiano Ronaldo
Unavailable: Arthur (thigh injury), Demiral (muscle injury)
Parma vs Juventus – Previous Meetings
On Saturday, the teams will meet for the 65th time in history, with Juve taking charge in this fixture. The Bianconeri have won 33 out of 64 head-to-head meetings, losing 13 and drawing 18. In the most recent meeting in January, Juventus celebrated a narrow 2-1 win thanks to goals from Ronaldo.
Conclusion
This looks like a fairly routine win for Pirlo’s men, having the best defensive record in the league, which makes Parma’s task of becoming the first team to beat the Old Lady this season even more impossible.