After an intriguing round of fixtures last weekend, the Serie A teams are back in action this week for the last time in 2020. In Round 14, Juventus will be looking to finish the year on a high note, with the reigning champions hosting Fiorentina at the Allianz Stadium in Turin.
Both teams come into this game after collecting important points on Matchday 13 last Saturday. Third-placed Juventus got back to winning ways after dropping two points against Atalanta earlier last week by thrashing Parma 4-0 at Ennio Tardini Stadium. In contrast, Fiorentina earned a rare point after playing out a 1-1 draw with Hellas Verona.
The Cult of Calcio is here to preview Juventus’ attempt to close the gap at the top, with an eye on the potential lineups of both sides.
Juventus – Fiorentina
Serie A Round 14
Tuesday, 22 December 2020
Kick-off at 20:45 (CET)
Allianz Stadium (Turin)
Recent Form – Juventus
A comfortable win against Parma on Saturday means that Juventus remain 3rdin the league standings with 27 points, four behind the Serie A leaders Milan. It was the Bianconeri’s 4th win in the last 6 matches, the other two were draws, meaning that Juventus remain one of only two teams without a single defeat this Serie A campaign.
After missing lots of golden scoring chances against Atalanta last week, Juve learnt their lesson and were more clinical in front of goal against Parma. They converted 2 big goal-scoring chances out of 4 in total, with Leonardo Bonucci (xG 0.66) and Cristiano Ronaldo (xG 0.24) wasting the other two. In general, Juve’s win was completely justified, as suggested by the key match statistics. The Old Lady enjoyed 63% ball possession and had 19 attempts at Parma’s goal (7 on target). In contrast, despite having only 37% of possession, Parma managed to create 2 big chances, valued at 0.51 xG and 0.35 xG, but failed to convert both of them. Overall, Juve came away deserved winners, finishing the game with an xG score of 2.57 compared to Parma’s 1.23.
After netting four times against Parma, Juve have climbed up to 3rd place for most goals scored in the league (28). Their xG (expected goals) in the last three matches has been quite impressive as well, with 2.6 against Genoa, 2.9 against Atalanta and 2.6 in the recent match against Parma. However, their npxG (non-penalty expected goals) is less convincing despite being the 5th highest in the league (21.2). All in all, what Juve occasionally lack in front of goal is fully compensated with their outstanding defensive performances. The Bianconeri have the best defensive record in the league (10 goals conceded) and the 2nd best xGA (expected goals against) valued at 10.2.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Juventus
Juventus welcome the final game of 2020 with a couple of injury concerns. Paulo Dybala was ruled out for Saturday’s game against Parma due to a minor muscle injury in his right thigh and remains a major doubt for Tuesday clash. Both Arthur and Merih Demiral are also sidelined following the injuries they picked up in the previous games, with Giorgio Chiellini racing to be fit.
Andrea Pirlo is likely to stick to his preferred 3-4-1-2 tactical formation, with Alvaro Morata, Dejan Kulusevski and Cristiano Ronaldo all expected to start after scoring four goals combined against Parma.
Expected Starting XI (3-4-1-2): Szczesny; Danilo, Bonucci, de Ligt: Cuadrado, McKennie, Bentancur, Alex Sandro; Kulusevski; Morata, Cristiano Ronaldo
Unavailable: Dybala (muscle injury), Arthur (thigh injury), Demiral (muscle injury), Chiellini (to be assessed)
Recent Form – Fiorentina
On Saturday, Cesare Prandelli’s men earned a hard-fought point at home against Hellas Verona. It was Viola’s 3rddraw in the last 6 matches, and second in a row, which sees them placed 16th in the league standings, only four points above the relegation zone. Fiorentina have failed to win any of the last 8 Serie A games (4 defeats and 4 draws), with the last win recorded back in late October against Udinese.
Although the Viola managed to come away with a point against Verona, their overall performance was poor, showing no signs of improvement. Prandelli’s side had more possession (59%) and attempted 10 shots at the opposition’s goal but managed to hit the target only once. Their only goal of the game was a penalty kick which was one of only 2 big chances Fiorentina created throughout the whole match. The only other big scoring chance was wasted by Nikola Milenkovic in the 84th minute that was valued at 0.45 xG. Overall, Fiorentina finished the game with an xG of 1.59 in comparison with Verona’s 1.19, but apart from the penalty kick, which was evaluated at 0.77 xG, Viola created only 0.82 xG worth of chances.
Fiorentina’s poor form in front of goal is no coincidence as indicated by the most recent match scores. Prandelli’s men have failed to score in 5 of their last 9 Serie A matches, averaging only a goal per game this season (17th result in the league). Their npxG, (non-penalty expected goals) which is valued at 16.0 (8th in the league), is slightly more encouraging, but Fiorentina’s overall chance creation has been poor throughout the season. They are only 14th for shot-creating actions and only 16th for goal-creating actions per 90 minutes, with their goals per shot on target ratio being one of the worst in the Serie A as well (0.26 goals per shot on target – 17th place).
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Fiorentina
Despite their poor domestic form, Fiorentina have been more or less injury-free during the first part of the season so far. Apart from a couple of lesser players in terms of their contribution this season, Prandelli will have a fully fit squad at his disposal on Tuesday night.
Left wing-back Cristiano Biraghi looks like the only potential new addition to Fiorentina’s starting lineup against Juve as he should come in place of Antonio Barreca.
Expected Starting XI (3-5-2): Dragowski; Milenkovic, Pezzella, Caceres; Venuti, Amrabat, Pulgar, Castrovilli, Biraghi; Ribery, Vlahovic
Unavailable: Duncan (to be assessed), Eysseric (to be assessed)
Juventus vs Fiorentina – Previous Meetings
On Tuesday night, both teams will meet for the 173rdtime in their history. Historically, Juve have been clear favorites in this tie, having won 82 matches so far (47.6% win ratio). In contrast, Fiorentina have come away winners on only 34 occasions (19.8% win ratio), while the remaining 56 matches ended in a draw.
In the most recent match back in February, Juve secured a comfortable 3-0 win over the Viola thanks to two goals from Cristiano Ronaldo and Matthijs de Ligt.
Conclusion
Although it is unlikely that Tuesday’s encounter will end up to be a heavy scoreline, Juventus are clear favorites and should have this game in the bag. Fiorentina are severely struggling for goals, while the Bianconeri have the best defence in the league, making the Viola’s task even more impossible.