The battle for places at the top of the Serie A table is getting fiercer with each week, making the head-to-head meetings between the top sides impossible to ignore. In Round 22, we welcome two of the top six sides of the Serie A as Juventus travel to Naples to take on Gennaro Gattuso’s Napoli in the hope of staying within touching distance of both Milan clubs.
In midweek, both teams were busy battling for the place in the Coppa Italia final. On Tuesday night, Juve showed a solid defensive performance as they managed to held Inter to a goalless draw in the second leg of the Semi-Final, which was enough to reach their 20th final in history following a 2-1 win in the first leg. In contrast, Napoli have ended their cup run with a 3-1 defeat to Atalanta after a goalless first leg.
The Cult of Calcio is here to preview the battle between the two Serie A giants of recent years, with an eye on the potential starting lineups of both teams.
Napoli – Juventus
Serie A Round 22
Saturday, 13 February 2021
Kick-off at 18:00 (CET)
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)
Recent Form – Napoli
Napoli’s most recent Serie A form has not been great; Gattuso’s men have lost two of the last three matches, including a 2-1 defeat to Genoa a week ago and a 3-1 loss to Hellas Verona in late January. The Azzurri are currently sitting in 7th place in the league standings with 37 points, 12 behind the current leaders Milan, though Gattuso’s men do have a game in hand.
The most recent game against Genoa reflected Napoli’s struggles this season. On their day, Napoli are one of the most exciting if not the most exciting team to watch in the Serie A as a 6-0 thrashing of Fiorentina might suggest. However, at the same time, they are one of the most wasteful teams in the division as a game against Genoa proved it once again. In this game, Gattuso’s men had 67% possession, 26 goal attempts – only 9 were on target though (34.6% accuracy) – but wasted 4 out of 4 big goal-scoring opportunities. The game ended with Napoli accumulating 2.57 expected goals (xG) against Genoa’s 1.03.
Napoli are by far one of the most potent attacking forces in the Serie A this season. They lead the way for the highest number of shot-creating actions per 90 minutes in the league with 28.80, leaving Atalanta behind in second place with 27.00, and are the third-best team for goal-creating actions per 90 with 3.70. However, Napoli’s sublime attacking display usually takes a toll when it comes to chance conversion. The Blues attempt the most shots per game among all 20 teams this season (18.1), with on average 6.50 shots per game hitting the opposition’s target – the best result in the league. Nonetheless, it results in only 0.32 goals per every shot on target, which places Napoli outside of the top 10 for this metric. Consequently, it has a negative impact on their non-penalty expected goals (npxG) record that also places them only in 6th in the league (33.7 npxG).
Teams News and Predicted Lineups – Napoli
Gattuso is expected to field an identical team to the one that faced Genoa seven days ago. Napoli’s two main center-backs in Kostas Manolas and Kalidou Koulibaly will have to sit this one out, as the Greek is still recovering from an ankle injury, while the Senegalese international has had COVID and is still in isolation. Dries Mertens is also sidelined with an ankle injury and is not expected to even make a bench.
Expected Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Ospina; Di Lorenzo, Maksimovic, Rrahmani, Bakayoko, Zielinski; Lozano, Insigne, Politano; Osimhen
Unavailable: Manolas (ankle injury); Koulibaly (COVID); Ghoulam (COVID); Mertens (ankle injury)
Recent Form – Juventus
Although Juventus’ six-game winning run in all competitions had come to an end on Tuesday night following a goalless draw with Inter, it seems that the Bianconeri have finally found a higher gear and will mount a title challenge. The reigning champions have also won the last three Serie A matches, having scored six and conceded none, including a 2-0 win over the league rivals Roma.
Nonetheless, their performance against Roma was far from convincing unlike the scoreline suggests. Although possession-wise Pirlo’s men were in control of the game for big parts throughout the 90 minutes, they attempted only 3 shots, of which 2 hit the target, including Cristiano Ronaldo’s strike in the 13th minute. Additionally, the Bianconeri had only 2 corner-kicks compared to Roma’s 9, and did not create a single big chance during the entire game. The last season’s Scudetto winners finished the game with expected goals (xG) of only 0.31, which did not even match up with Roma’s 0.80 xG.
Although this season Juventus seem to be firing below their usual standards of recent years; the stats portray a different picture. The Bianconeri rank only 6th for goals scored after 19 matches (avg. 2.1 goals per game), but at the same time, they have the third-best non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per game record in the division (1.75 npxG). It indicates that Juve do create quality chances in front of the opposing goal, but they are simply not clinical enough on most occasions. To support this, Pirlo’s men rank only 9th in the league for goals scored for every shot on target (0.33 goals). Although Juve hit the target fairly regularly – ranked 4th in the league for shots on target – it seems that the opposing goalkeepers deal with their goal attempts fairly easily.
Teams News and Predicted Lineups – Juventus
Unlike his opponent, Andrea Pirlo has been a lot more fortunate with regards to injury and COVID situation in recent weeks. The former Juventus midfielder will travel to Naples with a practically fully fit squad at his disposal, with only Paulo Dybala remaining sidelined due to a knee injury.
Expected Starting XI (3-5-2): Szczesny; De Ligt, Chiellini, Alexandro; Cuadrado, Bentancur, McKennie, Rabiot, Chiesa; Morata, Cristiano Ronaldo
Unavailable: Dybala (knee injury)
Napoli vs Juventus – Previous Meetings
On Saturday evening, the teams will meet for the 168th time in their head-to-head history, with Juventus being a far more successful of the two sides. The Bianconeri have won on 78 occasions (46.7% win ratio), whereas Napoli have secured a win only 36 times (21.6% win ratio).
Looking at the most recent history, Juve have also been the better of the two, having won three of the last four matches against Napoli. However, in the most recent fixture back in January 2020, it was Napoli who snatched a narrow 2-1 win over the Old Lady.
Conclusion
Juventus can consider themselves as favorites for this match for all the right reasons. They are unbeaten in the last seven matches in all competitions (six wins, one draw), and have kept three clean sheets in the last three Serie A matches. However, on their day, Napoli are probably the best attacking side in the league and can hurt anyone. Juve will have to be defensively solid as per usual if Pirlo’s men want to continue breathing down the neck of two Milan clubs.