The most anticipating day of Italian football is about to come. Tomorrow’s Milan – Inter can potentially be classed as a title decider, with the winner gaining crucial momentum in the upcoming rounds of the competition.
In Round 23 of Serie A, we are in for a treat as both Milan clubs go head-to-head for the 228th time in their history in what promises to be the biggest Derby di Milano in many years.
Only a point separates the two teams at this stage of the season, with Milan still busy battling in the knockout stages of the Europa League. On Thursday, the Rossoneri travelled to Serbia where they took on Crvena Zvezda in the first leg of the Round of 32. Stefano Pioli’s men have come away with two precious away goals following a two-all draw although Milan Pavkov’s 93rd-minute equalizer has left no room to celebrate.
The Cult of Calcio is here to preview the 228thDerby di Milano, with an eye on the potential lineups of both teams.
Milan – Inter
Serie A Round 23
Sunday, 21 February 2021
Kick-off at 3:00 PM (CET)
Stadio San Siro (Milan)
Recent Form – Milan
After a sublime first part of the season in 2020, when Milan were the only unbeaten team in the Serie A, the Rossoneri have started to fall a little short over the period of the first seven weeks in 2021. Milan have lost 4 out of 11 matches in all competitions following the turn of the new year, with 3 of those defeats coming in the Serie A. The most recent defeat came in a game against Spezia a week ago, which meant the end to Milan’s lead at the top of the table after 18 consecutive match-days.
Although from the first look, a 2-0 defeat to Spezia might look like a shocking surprise to the majority of fans, the key match statistics portray a completely different picture. Against Spezia, Milan attempted only 7 shots on goal, of which none ended up hitting the target, which was way below their season average of 14.5 shots per game. Additionally, there is little surprise in the fact that Milan also did not create a single big goal-scoring opportunity throughout the 90 minutes, bearing in mind that the Rossoneri on average create 1.7 big chances in the Serie A this season. Milan finished the game with expected goals (xG) of 0.30, which was 1.72 xG lower than their season average (2.02 xG).
It looks like Milan’s overperformance in the first part of the season has finally come to haunt them. Although Pioli’s men are the fourth-highest scorers in the league with 45 goals and their expected goals (xG) tally of 44.5 is practically identical, the non-penalty expected goals (npxG) tell us a different story. Milan’s 34.4 npxG record is the fifth-best in Serie A, but it means they should have scored almost 11 goals fewer than they actually have done. It shows that even though Milan were capable of coming away with narrow victories during the first part of the season, a dip in form was inevitable as they were the most overperforming team in the league. The 18-time Scudetto winners have accumulated 7 points more than expected at this stage of the season (xPTS 41.95).
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Milan
In midweek, Milan played without some of their key players, including Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Franck Kessié, Simon Kjaer, Sandro Tonali, and Hakan Calhanoglu. The reason is fairly simple and obvious – they were all rested for a massive game on Sunday. Consequently, Pioli is expected to name them in the starting lineup against Inter as Milan are prepared to face their bitter cross-city rivals with practically a fully fit squad. Brahim Diaz and Ismael Bennacer are the only ones to be sidelined with an injury.
Expected Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Calabria, Kjaer, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Tonali, Kessié; Saelemaekers, Calhanoglu, Rebic; Ibrahimovic.
Unavailable: Brahim Diaz (hamstring injury); Bennacer (hamstring injury)
Recent Form – Inter
It took Inter 18 match-days to finally get the better of their city rivals Milan, as Antonio Conte’s men have climbed to the top of the Serie A table for the first time since the opening two games of the season following a 3-1 win over Lazio. The Nerazzurri are one point ahead of Milan coming into this game with 50 points and will be looking to claim their 5th win Serie A win in the last 6 matches on Sunday.
Inter’s most recent win against Lazio was another proof why Antonio Conte’s teams are almost certain to be title contenders. The direct and counterattack based style of play has been evident to be incredibly efficient when it is further complemented with quality attacking players. Against Lazio, Inter were inferior in the positional play department, with the Nerazzurri having only 35% of possession, but they proved once again that a team does not necessarily need to be in control of the game to create enough chances to score. To back this up, Inter had 12 attempts at goal, of which 7 hit the target (58.3% accuracy), which was only 2 shots fewer than Lazio. Additionally, Conte’s men created 3 big scoring chances in comparison to Lazio’s none and finished the game deserved winners with 2.10 xG.
From the goal-scoring point of view, Inter are undoubtedly the best attacking side in Serie A this season. The Nerazzurri top the table for the most goals scored in the league (54), as well as the non-penalty expected goals (npxG) with 42.5, and the non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 minutes with 1.93. Inter’s composure in front of goal is further supported by the goals per shot on target metric; the Nerazzurri rank 2ndamong all 20 teams, scoring 0.37 goals per every shot that hits the target.
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Inter
Following a comprehensive 3-1 win over Lazio, Conte is expected to field an unchanged starting lineup against Milan on Sunday. Christian Eriksen will likely start the second game in a row alongside Marcelo Brozovic and Nicolò Barella, whilst Ivan Perisic should keep his place at left wing-back in what is shaping up to be a traditional 3-5-2 set-up for Inter.
Expected Starting XI (3-5-2): Handanovic; Skriniar, de Vrij, Bastoni; Hakimi, Barella, Brozovic, Eriksen, Perisic; Martinez, Lukaku.
Unavailable: Sensi (muscle injury)
Milan vs Inter – Previous Meetings
Both Milan clubs will meet for the 228th time in their history, with Inter having a slightly better head-to-head record of the two. So far, the Nerazzurri have won 83 matches against Milan (36.4% win ratio), with the red side of the city triumphing on 77 occasions (33.8% win ratio).
Looking at the most recent history, Inter have been by far the more dominant of the two, having won 5 of the last 6 derbies.
Conclusion
It does not get any bigger than this. A win for Inter would mean a four-point advantage at the top of the table, whilst a victory for Milan could get the momentum swing back on their side following the most recent drop in form.
Overall, Inter are in better form at this moment of time and should be considered slight favorites in the third Derby di Milano of the season.