In Round 24 of Serie A, Milan will be looking to spark a revival to their title challenge as Stefano Pioli’s men take on fourth-placed Roma at the Stadio Olimpico.
In midweek, Milan and Roma were busy fighting for European glory, leaving their domestic rivalries aside, in what turned out to be a successful Thursday night for both Italian clubs.
The Rossoneri have progressed to the next round of the Europa League thanks to two away goals scored in the first leg, as they played out a 1-1 draw against Crvena Zvezda in the return leg at the Stadio San Siro. In contrast, Roma were much more in control with their Europa League tie as they saw off Sporting Braga 5-1 on aggregate.
Roma – Milan
Serie A Round 24
Sunday, 28 February 2021
Kick-off at 20:45 (CET)
Stadio Olimpico (Rome)
Recent Form – Roma
Roma have been one of the stand out performers over the last month, having lost only once in seven matches in all competitions (five wins and one draw). Three wins of the possible five in the Serie A and two victories in the Round of 32 in the Europa League have placed the Giallorossi in a favorable position both domestically and in Europe. Concerning the domestic encounters, Roma are currently placed in 4th with 44 points, five behind their opponents on Sunday, Milan.
Although Paulo Fonseca’s men are in a strong position to finish in the top four, their situation could have been even better if not for an unexpected goalless draw against Benevento last weekend. Roma were clear favorites going into this game but failed to live up to their expectations despite playing 11 v 10 for more than half an hour in the second half. Fonseca’s side had 71% possession and 11 goal attempts, of which just one ended up to be a big-goal scoring chance in the 94th minute. Roma finished the game with just 0.88 expected goals (xG), which was way below their season average of 2.01.
Despite Roma’s struggles against Benevento, the Giallorossi are one of the best attacking teams in the Serie A this season, having scored 44 goals (avg. 2.00 per game), making it the third-best result among all teams. In fact, what is even more impressive about Roma’s attack is their non-penalty expected goals (npxG) record, which is the second-best in the league at the moment of writing, set at 41.8. It can be supported by the fact that Fonseca’s men create the fourth-highest number of goal actions per 90 minutes (3.59) and also have the third-best goals per shot on target ratio in Serie A (0.36 goals per shot on target).
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Roma
Following Roma’s comfortable Europa League win on Thursday night, Fonseca is expected to field his strongest lineup for the game against Milan. Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Lorenzo Pellegrini, Roma’s two of the most important players this season, should be back in action from the start after being given a rest against Braga.
Additionally, Roma will have to cope without their main striker, Edin Dzeko, who has suffered a muscle injury on Thursday night and will be unavailable for selection.
Expected Starting XI (3-4-2-1): Pau Lopez; Mancini, Cristante, Fazio; Karsdorp, Villar, Veretout, Spinazzola; Pellegrini, Mkhitaryan; Borja Mayoral
Unavailable: Dzeko (muscle injury); Santon (muscle injury); Kumbulla (muscle injury); Ibanez (hamstring injury); Smalling (hamstring injury)
Recent Form – Milan
After a sublime first part of the season in 2020, when Milan were the only unbeaten team in the Serie A, the Rossoneri have started to fall a little short in the first two months of 2021. Milan have lost 5 out of 13 matches in all competitions following the turn of the new year, with 4 of those defeats coming in the Serie A. Additionally, Pioli’s men are on a four-game winless streak in all competitions (two defeats and two draws), including a painful 3-0 defeat to their cross-city rivals and title challengers Inter.
The Derby di Milano was a true reality check for the Rossoneri, as they were solidly outplayed by their blue and black city rivals for most of the game. Despite having 60% ball possession and attempting 14 shots, Milan failed to create a single big chance throughout the 90 minutes (avg. 1.9 big chances per game) and were deservedly beaten on the night. They finished the game with 0.81 xG, which is two times lower compared to their season average of 1.98.
It looks like Milan’s overperformance in the first part of the season has finally come to haunt them. Although Pioli’s men are the fifth-highest scorers in the league with 45 goals and their expected goals (xG) tally of 45.5 is practically identical, the non-penalty expected goals (npxG) tell us a different story. Milan’s 35.3 npxG record means they should have scored almost 10 goals fewer than they have scored by now. It shows that even though Milan were capable of coming away with narrow victories during the first part of the season, a dip in form was inevitable, as they were one of the most overperforming teams in the league. The 18-time Scudetto winners have accumulated 7 points more than expected at this stage of the season (xPTS 41.95).
Team News and Predicted Lineups – Milan
Although Milan did go through to the next round of the Europa League, their main focus is still on Serie A. Against Crvena Zvezda, Pioli made a number of changes to his traditional starting lineup, indicating that Milan are still in a fight for this season’s Scudetto.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Ante Rebic, Alexis Saelemaekers, Sandro Tonali, Simon Kjaer and Theo Hernandez all did not start the game on Thursday night but should be back in contention against Roma.
Expected Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Donnarumma; Calabria, Kjaer, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Tonali, Kessié; Saelemaekers, Calhanoglu, Rebic; Ibrahimovic.
Unavailable: Mandzukic (muscle injury); Bennacer (hamstring injury)
Roma vs Milan – Previous Meetings
This will be the 184thmeeting between the two sides, with Milan having a much better record of the two. The Rossoneri have won 80 matches against Roma (43.7% win ratio), while their opponents were victorious on 48 occasions (26.2% win ratio).
Looking at the most recent history, the first round fixture in late October resulted in an entertaining 3-3 draw.
Conclusion
Sunday’s game against Roma is yet another massive test for Milan’s title aspirations. Another defeat could truly mark the end to their title challenge, whilst a victory for Roma could get them back in contention, assuming Inter fail to beat Genoa.
Worryingly for Milan, no signs are indicating they can turn the current situation around, with Roma more than capable of causing another major upset to the red and black side of Milan.